Research on the Power of China＇s Banking Market and Its Evolution

　　基　　金：基金项目：“新形势下银行并购问题研究”（09CJY048）.感谢匿名评审人的宝贵建议,当然文责自负.

　　摘　　要：本文利用1995—2011年在中国大陆境内运营的125家中外银行的非平衡面板数据，运用Panzar—Rosse的H统计值揭示了中国银行业在整个样本期间的平均市场力程度及其演变，使用分位数回归方法测量了不同规模银行的市场力。研究表明：样本期间内中国银行业的市场结构为垄断竞争型市场结构；市场力的演变呈现先下降后上升的U型特征；中等银行市场力最强，其次是小银行，大银行市场力最弱。本文批驳了中国银行业垄断的观点，认为中国银行业的竞争性改革已取得一定成效，但存在边际效应递减问题，需要改变竞争策略，对大银行的非效率问题，应通过分拆和加强机制转换予以解决。

　　This paper applies the Panzar-Rosse＇s H statistics to measure the power of China＇s banking market and its evolution, using the unbalanced panel data of 125 banks operating in Chinese mainland from 1995 to 2011. At the same time,the market power of banks in different scale is measured by quantile regression method. The results show that the market structure is monopolistic competition in China＇s banking industry during 1995--2011 ;the evolution of market power characters U-type profile~ the market power of medium-sized banks is the strongest, followed by small banks, while the big banks are the weakest. The paper points out that the competitive reform has achieved some success by refusing the monopoly view about China＇s banking, but there is diminishing marginal effect problem. Competitive strategies should be changed. For the inefficiency of the big banks, it should be addressed by divestiture and mechanism transformation.

　　关 键 词：银行市场力 Panzar～Rosse模型 分位数回归

　　Power of Banking Market, Panzar-Rosse Model, Quantile Regression

　　分 类 号：F831.4

　　参考文献：[1]马光远.《银行是"伪竞争真垄断"》,《中国经济导报》2012年11月3日.

　　[2]Angelini,P, and Cetorelli, N., The Effects of Regulatory Reform On Competition in the Banking Industry. Journal of Money,Credit and Banking ,Vol. 35,No. 5,2003,pp. 663- 684.

　　[3]Bikker, A. ,S. Shaffer and L. Spierdijk, Assessing Competition with the Panzar-Rnsse Model. The Role of Scale, Cost, and Equilibrium. The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 94, No. 4,2012, pp. 1025 - 1044.

　　[4]Boone,J. , A New Way to Measure Competition. CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 4330,2004.

　　[5]Bresnahan, T. F. , The Oligopoly Solution Concept Is Identified. Economics Letters, Vol. 10, No. 1- 2,1982, pp. 87-92.

　　[6]Buchs, T. and Mathisen,J. , Competition and Efficiency in Banking.Behavioral Evidence from Ghana. IMF Working Paper , No. 17,2005.

　　[7]Claessens, S. and Laeven, L. , What Drives Bank Competition? Some International Evidence. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 36, No. 3,2004, pp. 563- 584.

　　[8]Coceorese,P. ,Information Sharing,Market Competition and Antitrust Intervention. A Lesson from the Italian Insurance Sector. Applied Economics, Vol. 44, No. 3,2012, pp. 351 - 359.

　　[9]Gelos,R. G. ,and J. Roldos,Consolidation and Market Structure in Emerging Market Banking System. Emerging Markets Review 5,No. 1,2004,pp. 39-59.

　　[10]lwata, G. , Measurement of Conjectural Variations in Oligopoly. Econometrica, Vol. 42, No. 5,1974, pp. 947- 966.

　　[11]Lau,L. J. ,On Identifying the Degree of Competitiveness from Industry Price and Output Data. Economics Letters ,Vol 10, No. 1-2,1982,pp. 93-99.

　　[12]Moryneux,P. ,D. M. Lloyd-Williams and J. Thornton, Competitive Conditions in European banking. Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 18, No. 3, pp. 445-459.